Model best-case, base-case and worst-case profit from a revenue and cost assumption, then blend them into a probability-weighted expected profit.
Données vérifiées · July 2026
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Starts from a base-case revenue and applies an uplift for the best case and a decline for the worst case, then computes profit under each scenario using a constant variable-cost percentage and fixed costs. The three scenario profits are weighted by the probability you assign each one to produce a single expected profit figure.
£200,000 base revenue at 60% variable cost with a 25%/50%/25% probability split across a 20% uplift, base case and 20% decline: the expected profit sits close to the base case, with the range showing the swing between best and worst case.
Enter your base-case revenue and the variable cost percentage that applies to it.
Set the revenue uplift for the best case and the revenue decline for the worst case.
Assign a probability to each of the three scenarios — they should sum to 100%.
Read the profit under each scenario, the expected (probability-weighted) profit, and the range between best and worst.
Last data update
July 7, 2026
Sources and references
Standard scenario planning / expected value methodology used in business planning and management accounting, 2025/26.
The data in this calculator is updated regularly to reflect the latest official rates. When in doubt, consult the official sources listed above.
A single-point forecast hides the risk either side of it. Weighting three scenarios gives an expected value that accounts for both upside and downside, and shows the range you should plan cash flow around.
Use the ratio of costs that move with revenue (materials, direct labour, commissions) to revenue — fixed costs like rent and salaries are entered separately and don't scale with the scenario.