Scenario Planning (Best/Base/Worst)
Model best-case, base-case and worst-case profit from a revenue and cost assumption, then blend them into a probability-weighted expected profit.
Dados verificados · julho de 2026
Why do I need three probabilities instead of one plan?
A single-point forecast hides the risk either side of it. Weighting three scenarios gives an expected value that accounts for both upside and downside, and shows the range you should plan cash flow around.
Fonte: Standard scenario planning / expected value methodology used in business planning and management accounting, 2025/26. · atualizado 2026
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Tudo sobre Scenario Planning (Best/Base/Worst)
📋Apresentação+
Starts from a base-case revenue and applies an uplift for the best case and a decline for the worst case, then computes profit under each scenario using a constant variable-cost percentage and fixed costs. The three scenario profits are weighted by the probability you assign each one to produce a single expected profit figure.
💡 Boas práticas
- If your three probabilities don't sum to 100%, the expected profit is still calculated but flagged — fix the weights before relying on the number.
- A wide profit range relative to the base case signals a business that needs more cash headroom or a more conservative plan.
- Revisit the scenario probabilities quarterly as actual results come in — they shouldn't stay fixed for a whole year.
🔢 Exemplo concreto
£200,000 base revenue at 60% variable cost with a 25%/50%/25% probability split across a 20% uplift, base case and 20% decline: the expected profit sits close to the base case, with the range showing the swing between best and worst case.
📖Guia de utilização+
Como usar esta calculadora
- 1
Enter your base-case revenue and the variable cost percentage that applies to it.
- 2
Set the revenue uplift for the best case and the revenue decline for the worst case.
- 3
Assign a probability to each of the three scenarios — they should sum to 100%.
- 4
Read the profit under each scenario, the expected (probability-weighted) profit, and the range between best and worst.
📚Glossário+
- Expected profit
- The probability-weighted average of the best-case, base-case and worst-case profits — a single figure that reflects the likelihood of each outcome, not just the base case.
- Profit range
- The gap between the best-case and worst-case profit — a simple measure of how much uncertainty the plan carries.
ℹ️Fontes e atualizações+
Última atualização dos dados
7 de julho de 2026
Fontes e referências
Standard scenario planning / expected value methodology used in business planning and management accounting, 2025/26.
Os dados desta calculadora são atualizados regularmente para refletir as últimas tabelas oficiais. Em caso de dúvida, consulte as fontes oficiais indicadas acima.
FAQ — Scenario Planning (Best/Base/Worst)
Why do I need three probabilities instead of one plan?+
A single-point forecast hides the risk either side of it. Weighting three scenarios gives an expected value that accounts for both upside and downside, and shows the range you should plan cash flow around.
What variable cost percentage should I use?+
Use the ratio of costs that move with revenue (materials, direct labour, commissions) to revenue — fixed costs like rent and salaries are entered separately and don't scale with the scenario.